BigDipperOptions Strategy Win-Rate Validation
This document summarizes the observed win-rate performance from prior machine learning experiments used to filter spread trades on the BigDipperOptions platform. The goal of these experiments was simple:Identify option spreads that have a high probability of reaching a defined profit target.Two profit targets were tested:
| Code | Meaning |
|---|---|
| cl_30p | Trade reached 30% profit |
| cl_50p | Trade reached 50% profit |
1. Simple takeaway (for all traders)
Across multiple months of historical trade simulations, the filtering models produced consistently high win-rates for several option spread strategies.Win-rate summary
| Strategy | 30% profit target | 50% profit target |
|---|---|---|
| Bull Call Spread | ~90.9% | ~83.3% |
| Bear Call Spread | ~93.3% | ~91.3% |
| Bear Put Spread | ~91.8% | ~87.8% |
Key observations
1. Bear Call Spreads showed the strongest results- Most consistent win-rate
- Retained strong performance even at the higher 50% profit target
- Reliable performance for 30% target exits
- Slightly weaker when targeting 50%
- Win-rate above 90% for 30% targets
- Slight decline when pushing to 50%
What this means
The filtering models are successfully identifying spreads that historically reached profit targets with high consistency. In simple terms:The system focuses on selecting high-probability spreads rather than predicting large moves.This approach emphasizes consistency over speculation.
2. Expanded results (technical view)
The following tables show win-rates from three independent datasets used in testing.30% profit target (cl_30p)
| Strategy | Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Call Spread | 90.95% | 93.09% | 88.55% | 90.86% |
| Bear Call Spread | 91.22% | 95.97% | 92.58% | 93.26% |
| Bear Put Spread | 92.91% | 92.34% | 90.08% | 91.78% |
50% profit target (cl_50p)
| Strategy | Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Call Spread | 84.67% | 85.62% | 79.56% | 83.28% |
| Bear Call Spread | 87.69% | 94.85% | 91.29% | 91.28% |
| Bear Put Spread | 90.55% | 89.56% | 83.33% | 87.81% |
Interpretation
Stability: Win-rates remained consistent across all three datasets, indicating the results were not driven by a single market environment. Profit target impact: Higher profit targets reduce win-rate; however, the strategies still maintained high success probabilities. Strategy strength| Strategy | Strength |
|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | Most stable and highest win-rate |
| Bull Call Spread | Strong bullish directional strategy |
| Bear Put Spread | Reliable downside strategy |