> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.bigdipperoptions.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Win-Rate Report

> Observed win-rate performance from machine learning experiments filtering spread trades on the BigDipperOptions platform.

This summary presents the **observed win-rate performance** from machine learning experiments using the [spreads listed here](https://bigdipperoptions.com/features/opportunity-charts).

**Experiment goal:**

> Identify option spreads with a **high probability of hitting a defined profit target**.

Two profit targets were tested:

| Target     | Description                |
| ---------- | -------------------------- |
| 30% profit | Trade closed at 30% profit |
| 50% profit | Trade closed at 50% profit |

Testing was conducted using **three independent datasets (Month 1–3)** to ensure robustness across different periods.

***

## 1. Simple Takeaway

Across several months of trade simulations, filtering models produced **consistently high win-rates** for common option spread strategies.

### Win-Rate Summary

| Strategy         | 30% profit target | 50% profit target |
| ---------------- | ----------------- | ----------------- |
| Bull Call Spread | **\~90.9%**       | **\~83.3%**       |
| Bear Call Spread | **\~93.3%**       | **\~91.3%**       |
| Bear Put Spread  | **\~91.8%**       | **\~87.8%**       |

### Key Observations

* **Bear Call Spread:** Most consistent win-rate; retained strength even at 50% target
* **Bull Call Spread:** Very strong for 30% exits; a bit lower at 50%
* **Bear Put Spread:** Stable above 90% for 30% targets; slight drop for 50%

### What This Means

The filtering models identify spreads that have **historically reached profit targets with high consistency**—focusing on **high-probability trades over predicting large moves**.\
This means **consistency over speculation**.

***

## 2. Expanded Results

Win-rates by strategy, split by profit target and month:

### 30% Profit Target

| Strategy         | Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | Average    |
| :--------------- | :------ | :------ | :------ | :--------- |
| Bull Call Spread | 90.95%  | 93.09%  | 88.55%  | **90.86%** |
| Bear Call Spread | 91.22%  | 95.97%  | 92.58%  | **93.26%** |
| Bear Put Spread  | 92.91%  | 92.34%  | 90.08%  | **91.78%** |

### 50% Profit Target

| Strategy         | Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | Average    |
| :--------------- | :------ | :------ | :------ | :--------- |
| Bull Call Spread | 84.67%  | 85.62%  | 79.56%  | **83.28%** |
| Bear Call Spread | 87.69%  | 94.85%  | 91.29%  | **91.28%** |
| Bear Put Spread  | 90.55%  | 89.56%  | 83.33%  | **87.81%** |

### Interpretation

* **Stability:** Results were consistent across all datasets—not due to chance.
* **Profit Target:** Higher targets (50%) reduce win-rate, but probabilities remain strong.
* **Strategy Strengths:**

| Strategy         | Notable Strength                    |
| ---------------- | ----------------------------------- |
| Bull Call Spread | Strong bullish directional strategy |
| Bear Call Spread | Most stable, highest win-rate       |
| Bear Put Spread  | Reliable downside strategy          |

***

### Final Note

These results reflect **historical model performance using defined filters** and profit targets.\
They show the filtering system can identify **high-probability spreads**, but **do not guarantee future results**.

BigDipperOptions helps traders spot **structured opportunities**, not provide investment advice.

Options trading involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results.